An independent systematic research firm, studying short-horizon risk, the short side of equities, and defensive positioning across real assets.
We study what the market pays for bearing a bounded risk over a short horizon, the downside it has yet to price in companies whose balance sheets cannot carry their story, and what holds its value when the wider market does not.Each is conditional; what survives the conditions is the research.
Our research strategy: three research models run together on one capital base, over 3.7 years.
Figure 1: Growth of 100 for the research strategy against the S&P 500, gold and Treasury bills, weekly on a log scale, January 2023 to September 2026. Hatched spans mark the market’s sharpest downturns; the table below sets the index move in each against the strategy’s.
Source: exchange and public market data. Strategy figures are modelled on recorded market prices, net of trading costs. The live record of each model continues on the Ledger.