Condor Desk

A Posteriori Research SPY— VIX— VIX1D— Paper— Live— Today—

Positionwhat the account holds and what is at risk right nowhide

Portfolio · Balanced plan on paper $50,000 account · Vallum ×1 · Cursus ×½ · Indicium ×½, stacked as the accounts would hold them

Open risk

Impetusthe momentum book · $100k paper reference beside the live book on Robinhood · the owner places every orderhide

Impetus · paper line plain 12–1 momentum · top 20, equal weight, rebalanced monthly · 25% name cap, 30% industry cap · $100,000 notional

What it would hold decided at the close, filled at the next open, marked at the close

Ticker	Industry	#	Mark	Weight	Contrib	State

Live book Robinhood ••••2913 · whole shares · marked at the close · read-only mirror of the account

Ticker	Shares	Avg cost	Mark	Value	Weight	Target	P&L	State

Vectisthe perpetual-futures stack on paper · Kalshi BTC and ETH perps, maker-only, simulated fills · no order is senthide

Vectis · paper line six-signal stack · 30% vol target, 2× cap per half · hourly, 24/7 · $25,000 notional

Book and signals decided at the hour close, resting limit for one hour, marked at the next close

Asset	Score	Target	Held	Mark	Basis z	Funding	DVOL	P&L

Placed	Asset	Side	Qty	Limit	Status	Fill	Fee bp

Conditionswhat the models are reading into todayhide

Market environment how shaky the next one to three months are likely to be · not a forecast of direction

Backdropslow context for the next 6–12 months · base rates, not signalsshow

Macro backdrop slow context for the next 6–12 months · base rates, not signals

Operationswhether the machine is running and what it may do nexthide

Automation controls what each bot may do on its next run · changes are logged · the kill switch still stops everything

System health feed freshness

Tapethe market as it traded todayshow

Movers · tracked universe day change

Ticker	Last	Chg %	Signal

Ticker	Last	Chg %	Signal

Tape Eastern time

Relative performance rebased to the start of the window · pick names on the map below

Selected over the same window

Asset	Return	Ann. vol	Max DD

Volatility term structure VIX complex, daily closes · 120 sessions

Curve today

Market map tracked universe by asset class · day change and 22-day path · click a tile to add it to the comparison

Standingequity and the risk budget behind ithide

Vallum · equity by venue Vallum I paper on Alpaca SPY · live Robinhood XSP

Risk budget Kelly cap 18% · hard ceiling 20%

Todaywhat the bot read this morning, in the order it applies the ruleshide

Why today

Vallum · decision inputs every layer the bot read this morning, in the order it applies them

Layer	Reading	Rule	Size effect

Fillsevery trade and how the limit style didhide

Trades

Date	Venue	Und.	Strikes	Qty	Credit	Filled	Payout	P&L	Status

Fills by limit style

Style	Orders	Fill rate	vs natural	Eff. half-spread

Win rate · breach: —

Pathswhere price went against the strikes we soldshow

Last five days SPY minute path · shaded band = our short strikes · dashed = Alphanume band

Vallum seats SPY core plus four seats chosen by the rotation rule · re-selected every 6 months, next in February 2027

Name	Role	Score	Cr/W	Breach 12m	EV/day	ρ SPY	Both	Δ if added (12m)	IV rank	IV−HV	Earnings	Read

What a change would do to the daily strategy

Cursus · signals trend on gold, oil and bitcoin · long or flat · decided after the close, filled at the next open

Asset	Fund	Close	1m	3m	6m	12m	Blend	Vol 60d	Target	Held	Target $	Next open

Paper book $50,000 · the Cursus half of the $100k portfolio

Fund	Shares	Avg	Mark	Value	P&L

Recent fills

Rules and expectations bot/cursus_model.json

Todaywhat the rules allow and what the broker did with ithide

Indicium D3 · gates what decides whether a name can enter the book today

Indicium · IBKR orders the paper book mirrored on IBKR by the cloud gateway

Date	Phase	Ticker	Kind	Order	Limit	Status	Filled	Reason

Bookwhat is held, what is close, and what the screen seeshide

Paper book Indicium D3 on paper · $100k notional · entries at the next open, marks at the close, SPY hedge, borrow 50%

Ticker	Status	Shares	Entry	Mark	P&L	Session	ERS · not weighted

Shadow book what the D3 rules would hold today · 2+ flags in 90 days · ≥ $5 · cash burn · 4% / 1%

Ticker	Flags	Price	Held	Left	Weight	Exp. 60d	Borrow	Short vol	FTD	10-K	ERS · not weighted

Shadow testspre-registered forward tests · group-sequential, stop as soon as the evidence is decisive · never tradedhide

Shadow tests research/shadow/PREREGISTRATION.md · looks every 20 completed units · efficacy and futility bounds on z

Hypothesis	n	Effect · CI	z	Boundary position	Info	State	Expected decision

Pipelinenames one filing away and the full screen behind themhide

Indicium screen filing fingerprints stacked per name · trailing 90 days · ▸ = the D3 rule (2+ flags, ≥ $5, cash burn)

Ticker	Flags	Fingerprints	Price	Days	Exp. 60d	Borrow	Options	10-K	ERS · not weighted

One flag away a second filing inside the window makes it a pick

Ticker	Flag	Price	Window left	Burn	Borrow	ERS · not weighted

Evidencethe research the rules are built onshow

Evidence abnormal return vs SPY after the filing · real prices, split days zeroed · 11,409 events · 2024–26

Event	n	+5	+20	+60	P(down)

Stacking and borrow where the decline lives

Cut	n	+20	+60	P(down)

Simulated book corrected backtest 2024-02 → 2026-09 · monthly % of NAV · the D3 rows are the bot

Book	Names/day	Per month	Months > 0	Sharpe	Max DD	By year

Flag monitor realised 60-session abnormal return of recent events vs the backtest prior · the pre-market drop feed is being validated live

Flag	Window	n	ar20	ar60	% down	Prior	Verdict

Thesis research/SHORT_EVENTS_2026-09-13.md

Ledger written by the bot at decision, fill and settlement · bars and SPY minute paths nightly · Alphanume, FRED, EIA, GDELT nightly · all times Eastern · not investment advice.